Trump’s election may have shaken up politics around the world, but it hasn’t done much to change how the country perceives itself.
It’s one thing to see an election like Trump’s and think, “Oh, it’s the end of an era.”
It’s quite another to see it and feel the political impact.
That’s where the Trump Effect, or the political influence of the internet and social media, can play out in 2020.
To help explain the phenomenon, Quartz spoke with several political scientists and researchers.
What does the Trump effect mean?
“The Trump Effect is the belief that the US presidential election is rigged, meaning that the outcome is predetermined,” said Jason Chaffetz, a political scientist at the University of Utah.
“It’s also used to describe the sense that our elections are not free and fair.”
A Trump Effect would make it easier for an opponent to win.
For example, it could be used to argue that Trump’s victory was tainted because it was closer than expected, even though he had the advantage in the popular vote.
Or it could make it harder for an incumbent politician to lose, and the next person who’s in office is the one that’s seen as more qualified to lead.
Chaffetz said he thinks it has an effect on the way Americans vote, too.
People might see an incumbent as a safer candidate, and thus less likely to support a challenger.
This could make them more likely to vote for an independent candidate or, if a candidate wins the White House, a third-party candidate.
There’s also the perception that if a third party candidate is the candidate of the Democratic Party, it will only hurt their chances in November.
And it could change the way voters view the country, as people who are more politically conservative are more likely not to vote at all.
The most recent research shows that Americans don’t really care about the outcome of the election.
The only reason they care is because they want to make sure the president is reelected.
But it’s a trend that’s been going on for decades, and Chaffetz says it has a negative impact on American democracy.
So what does it mean for 2020?
The 2020 election is likely to be a nail-biter.
Donald Trump won in 2016 and his margin of victory was much smaller than what he had in 2016.
Trump won about 8 million more votes than Hillary Clinton won.
In 2018, there was a very close race in Wisconsin between Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Trump.
Stein took about 7 million more ballots than Trump.
More importantly, Trump won more states than Clinton did.
That means Trump would have won the presidency with about three-quarters of the votes in 2020, while Clinton would have needed to win the electoral college votes in roughly three-fourths of the states to win and would have likely won by a larger margin.
Why is it so important?
In a recent article, Vox’s Matt Yglesias wrote that if the election were held today, it would be a much closer election than the 2016 election, but not by much.
According to the most recent FiveThirtyEight forecast, Trump would win the presidency by about 7.7 million votes, while Stein would have to win about 2.6 million to win by about 2 million.
Even if Trump were to win a plurality of the Electoral College votes, the electoral vote count would still be tied at 2.5 million, meaning the popular votes would still have to be redistributed to win him the presidency.
How do you combat the Trump Effects?
The next president needs to be able to win an Electoral College victory, or to beat Clinton in the electoral votes.
A lot of that depends on what happens in the states that hold primaries or caucuses.
The candidates will need to be seen as competing against each other and the public in order to be viewed as fair.
On Tuesday, the Democratic nominee will be Bernie Sanders, who has been running against Clinton for the Democratic nomination for more than two years.
Sanders has been consistently beating Clinton in polls since he entered the race in June 2016.
Trump and Sanders have been fighting in the same states for months, and it will be interesting to see if this time around Sanders can take advantage of Trump’s unpopularity in the state to carry the day.
Also, if the candidates do end up going at it head-to-head, the winner of the popular election could be the president of the United States.
You can see this play out all over the country in 2020 elections, with candidates running for the highest office in the land.
If Trump wins the popular count in 2020 and he gets the 270 Electoral College vote, he could be president for good.
The president is likely the most important election in the United State